The NPD Group, a market research company, released the results of its annual survey of consumers’ holiday spending intentions, reporting that 30% of consumers surveyed told NPD they “plan to spend less” this holiday, which is a four point increase over last year’s results.

“That 4% increase is certainly a sign of the times. On the other hand, that 4% is not as dramatic as it could have been,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst, The NPD Group, Inc. “I think consumers will be looking for the right gift rather than the most extravagant or expensive one. That combined with the soft numbers we are up against from holiday last year, and I think we will see growth, albeit a modest 0.5 to 1.5%.”

It is the 0.5 to 1.5% growth that takes us “back to the future” and to holidays past when growth rates of 5% or more were unheard of and unexpected. For holiday 2009, not only will actual spending levels go “back to the future,” believes NPD, but the kinds of gifts being bought will “go back” to more traditional holiday gift items.

“The survey results point to a return of more gifts being made of sweaters, fragrances, music, books, movies and wallets again,” said Cohen, “We are also seeing makeup and TVs showing signs of growth. Other standouts are notebooks/netbooks. They have been growing and will continue to grow through the holiday.”

For the electronics categories overall, the NPD Holiday Survey shows a 20% rise in the 18- to 24-year-old demographic saying electronics are the ‘gift to purchase.’ “This age group is clearly demonstrating that they feel electronics are no longer a luxury but are in fact a necessity,” said Cohen.